Potential Apple Store Rankings

I frequently receive questions about Apple's procedures for selecting where to locate retail stores, and reply that it's based a combination of many factors, including registered Apple custors within an area. I finally decided to put together my own amateur ranking of metro areas where future stores might be located, based upon various demographic data.

During an February 2007 financial conference call CFO Peter Oppenheimer said Apple would--as usual--open 35 to 40 new stores by the end of fiscal 2007, or Sept. 30th.

Apple uses two key pieces of information to help site its retail stores: the registered user list, and the ZIPcode of customers at existing Apple retail stores. Without this information, I had to come up with some alternatives. I started with a list of the largest metro areas in the country that don't currently have an Apple retail store, and then created a score based on six different elements:

• the number of current stores in the state
• the metro area's population
• the presence of a large university (5,000 students or more)
• the presence of Interstate highways in the area
• the % of Internet use within the state
• the metro area's median household income

The scoring system gives preference to the larger cities without a store, and to states with more Internet use. It then gives additional credit to those areas with a major university, no current stores within the state, and nearby Interstate highways, and factors in the metro area's median household income.

Note: Yes, the criteria I used is necessarily limited and subject to quirks--hey, Apple has access to as much demographic data as they're willing to buy! Thanks to Greg for pointing out that I analyzed only cities/metro areas down to a population of about 300,000. Perhaps several smaller cities would score higher than the 11.82 score at the bottom of this list, boosted by their state's high Internet use score. Also, many malls are being developed outside major metro areas, which this list wouldn't necessarily identify. I'm sure the list has lots of other limitations. Thanks to everyone who e-mailed with input and corrections!

As you can see, the top potential store rankings make some sense. After I prepared this list, several of the Top 10 were identified as future store locations, including San Antonio, Nashville, Grand Rapids, Oklahoma City and Norfolk. That seems to validate the methods I used. However, somewhere down the middle of the list the sites start making a little less sense. That leads me to think that this list of sites will never be fully realized. Rather, about mid-way down this list, Apple would prefer to build additional stores in metro areas where stores already exist, rather then build in smaller markets.

Also check my page on Apple's site selection process, and a list of the Top 150 metro areas in the U.S., the Top 10 metro areas without an Apple store, or download the original spreadsheet (xls format) on which this information was derived. Please provide feedback or post a new topic on the forum. And also check my ranked list of possible international store locations.

This listing was originally prepared in early Jan. 2005, and has been periodically updated. Several stores (in gray, with location in bold) have been revealed by Apple since I prepared the chart. The Providence store was known when the chart was posted, but I included it to validate the scoring system. Check the very bottom of the page for an unranked list of additional potential cities and store locations.