2005 Store Line-Up

The future of Apple's retail store initiative seems to be in question, both by looking at the line-up of future stores and word that the mini-store concept is due for a make-over....or worse.

First, the number of job listings for future stores has tapered off. However, this is in-line with the schedule of store openings: they're clustered around the last four months of the year (see chart below). The months of January-April usually have very few store openings.

The average time between a job listing on Apple's Web page and the store grand opening is 180 days. As I write this, a listing posted now would indicate a store opening in mid-March. So the lack of job listings right now doesn't seem to forecast a store slow-down.

During Apple's most recent conference to discuss earnings, CFO Peter Oppenheimer reiterated there would be 125 stores open by the end of September. It was a figure he had reported without change during two previous calls. Oppenheimer's next chance to update the retail initiative is October 11th. As of now, it appears Apple will have 124 stores open by the end of September (although there's still another weekend left for grand openings).

Looking ahead, job listings should appear again at the end of October, indicating that new stores will open in the April-June, 2006 time period. Until then, we can only assume that Apple's retail store plans are to continue a slow and steady expansion.

The above chart shows the number of grand openings per month since Apple's retail stores opening in May 2001. It's obvious that the most stores have opened in the September-December time period, which coincides with the holiday shopping season when a large percentage of electronics sales are made. The red bars reflect future store openings confirmed by Apple. Based on this chart, the quiet period coming up after the New Year appears normal. We'll have to wait until the end of October to know if Apple is slowing down an expansion of retail stores.