A survey of Apple’s retail stores on Black Friday by a financial analyst showed a “likely upside” to previous retail revenue estimates for December. Analyst Jonathan Hoopes of ThinkEquity Partners LLC wrote to clients that the survey by volunteer observers covered 28 stores in eight states, and logged per-hour traffic ranging from 69 visitors in the early morning to 1,750 visitors in the early evening.
Based on these estimates, overall traffic to Apple’s retail stores ranged from 860,000 to 916,000 visitors on Black Friday, he said. Purchase observations revealed an 8 percent conversion rate, with “the overwhelming majority of purchases fit into a small bag.” Using an average $45 purchase figure, he estimated Black Friday retail revenues of from $36 million to $41 million. Hoopes told investors the data and estimates suggest that, “Apple Retail Store Revenues are poised to surpass our $1.45 billion (quarter) estimate by $55 million or more. More importantly, we are increasingly confident that Apple’s CPU share-gain story is valid, in-tact, and gaining traction.”
Hoopes raised the company’s target price for Apple’s stock from $100 per share to $110. He concluded, “Apple’s Retail Store is a clear differentiator and significant catalyst for further CPU share gains and profit margin expansion, in ourview. Reiterate BUY rating.”
Apple’s stock closed today over $91 a share. On three previous occasions the company has split the stock 2-for-1: in June, 1987 the stock split when the price hovered around $78 per share for about a month, in June, 2000 the stock split as it neared $100 per share, and in February, 2005 as the stock peaked around $88.
